The early weather predictions for the 2025-26 ski season are in, and the latest signs point to a winter that could sit somewhere between average and slightly lean for Utah’s mountains. 

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 56% chance conditions will stay neutral through the fall, with a weak La Niña possibly forming as winter gets underway before fading back to neutral in the spring.

“Based on this guidance and recent changes in the tropical Pacific, the forecast team narrowly favors La Niña thresholds being reached in three overlapping, 3-month seasons ( … during September-November, October-December, and November-January),” the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said in a Thursday report.

These early forecasts center on the ENSO patterns, short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. ENSO is a recurring pattern in Pacific Ocean temperatures that affects weather all over the world. It has three main phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral. 

El Niño warms the equatorial Pacific, often shifting storms south and leaving the northern Rockies, including Utah, drier and warmer. La Niña cools those waters, nudging storms north and sometimes bringing colder, snowier conditions our way, while neutral years keep ocean temperatures near average and weather patterns closer to normal.

This year’s setup, neutral phases with a chance of weak La Niña, doesn’t lock the region into either extreme. Skiers may wish for a lifetime of La Niña’s cold, wet winters, but the season is expected to be weak and short-lived, according to the National Weather Service reports.

Given that it’s only August and a La Niña year isn’t guaranteed, OpenSnow meteorologist Alan Smith is cautious about predicting what the National Weather Service is calling an average winter. Instead, he’s seeing early evidence for a warmer, drier season. 

“The signals for this winter favor below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures for most of the state,” said Smith in his Tuesday forecast. 

But as the keepers of the Greatest Snow on Earth, the state’s below-average snowfall often beats out most other regions for depth, said Smith, and Utahns will take what they can get. 

So, what does that mean for Park City skiers? Historically, neutral and weak La Niña years in Utah have produced everything from blockbuster winters to slow starts. The real difference tends to be timing.

Early-season snow in November and December can be hit-or-miss, which makes snowmaking a key part of getting runs open. By mid-season, January through March, the Wasatch still has the potential to pull in big storms, even if the long-range outlook leans toward average, said Smith.

In the winter of 2016-17, Park City Mountain saw 407 inches of snow, according to Ski Utah data. The very next year, 2017-18, barely reached 180 inches, one of the leanest totals in recent memory.

Both seasons align with Smith’s expectations for the year, qualifying as analog years marked by ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions and cooler-than-normal North Atlantic waters.

“However, two of the seven years examined (1997 and 2017) featured above-normal snowfall in the Wasatch Range (where most ski areas are located), so you never know,” said Smith. 

This range is why both the National Weather Service and OpenSnow urge caution in reading too much into a long-term seasonal forecast. 

While early data doesn’t look great, local conditions, storm tracks and short-term weather quirks can still turn an average year into something special.

In other words, it’s still August, so keep your skis tuned and fingers crossed. Winter is coming.

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Cool temperatures forecasted later this week will usher in the much-anticipated arrival of fall as Utah finally shakes off the persistent summer heat.

The National Weather Service forecast office in Salt Lake is expecting a change in weather, including the possibility of a pre-season winter storm bringing snow to the Wasatch Back by week’s end. It will be the first significant winter weather event of the season.

Forecasters anticipated conditions would still be warm, dry and breezy across the state with temperatures up to 15 degrees above normal. However, a sharp cold front is projected to roll through late Thursday with temperatures then expected to drop 30 degrees by Friday.

The cool temperatures will bring widespread precipitation in the form of valley rain and accumulating mountain snow mainly above 6,500 feet, according to the National Weather Service. 

Critical fire weather conditions, including strong winds, relative humidity levels around 15% and abnormally dry fuels are also expected to develop on Wednesday ahead of the storm system. 

A winter storm watch is in effect for the Wasatch Mountains, including Moon Lake, Alta, Brighton and Mirror Lake Highway, from Thursday morning until Friday evening. Snow accumulations could total between 10 and 18 inches with between 12 to 24 inches in the western Uinta Mountains. 

Park City could see between 1 and 3 inches compared to almost 22 inches at Kings Peak. There’s a 10% chance Summit County will see 2 inches or more of snow.

By Saturday morning, Utah could see its coldest temperatures yet this fall. 

There’s the potential for widespread freeze conditions outside of the Wasatch Front. The weather forecast also warns of potential impacts from gusty winds and the weight of snow on tree limbs. Travel could be difficult at times and traction law restrictions may be enacted if needed. 

Backcountry recreationists should pay particular attention and be ready for rapidly dropping temperatures and heavy, wet snowfall, the National Weather Service said.

Temperatures are expected to become more moderate starting Sunday into early next week.

A detailed forecast for the Park City area called for a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon on Wednesday with a 70% chance that evening. There’s a 90% to 100% chance of precipitation on Thursday with a high near 49 degrees. Friday has a high near 37 degrees with snow possible. Saturday and Sunday are mostly sunny with highs near 45 degrees. Temperatures increase to a high near 52 on Monday.

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Winter’s start is still about 100 days away, and while the long-range forecasts are still in the icebox, climate experts are skeptical Utah will see another record-breaking cold season this year as the current trends suggest a limited opportunity to build an outstanding snowpack.

A three-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a general warming pattern throughout most of the southern states with below-normal chances of precipitation in December, January and February.

The outlook gives a vague, general forecast of what the 2024-25 ski season could look like, but it’s hardly the most accurate. For a better sense, experts also look at current and past conditions to determine what might happen this winter.

Jonathan Meyer, the assistant state climatologist at the Utah Climate Center, tries to connect situation awareness with the outcomes experts expect to play out over sub-seasonal timescales, which is several weeks ahead to a month out, and then analyze the forecasts a few months to half a year forward.

The Utah Climate Center is charged with maintaining and archiving the state’s weather and climate records as well as providing a source of data and tools for all stakeholders ranging from individuals in the general public to larger state and federal agencies. Staff analyze conditions on the ground and how weather or climate events affect Utah’s landscape and impact conditions such as drought.

Meyer has been busy this summer monitoring the emergence of drought conditions throughout the state during the monsoon season, which was off to a pretty slow start this year. It was a very warm, dry transition from spring to summer and climate experts were worried about what would happen if those impacts returned after a quiet period.

Monsoonal rains returned over the last few weeks, providing cool relief and a decent amount of precipitation, particularly in northern Utah. Conditions have already started to dry out, but it was still a nice period of respite.

“Overall, the monsoon season hasn’t been tremendously underperforming, although I guess I wouldn’t necessarily call it a resounding success in terms of long-term drought relief, but it’s gotten us through in a way that has sort of held us neutral in terms of drought impacts,” Meyer said. 

Experts are also looking at the possibility of a La Niña winter, which occurs when conditions are about a half degree or colder than normal. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 74% chance a La Niña will persist during the 2024-25 season, and it’s expected to be weak.

During these conditions, the jet stream tends to become a little bit wavy and takes the storm track farther north into the Pacific Northwest, so the desert southwest tends to be drier, according to Meyer. He noted that’s a sweeping generalization and Utah isn’t usually affected by what the rotating El Niño-La Niña cycle is doing — making it hard to predict the winter.

“During La Niña we can expect a great likelihood that the far southern portions of the state will be drier than normal and at times that can leak up and influence the central and potentially northern Utah conditions. But when we look historically … there are just as many years that look familiar in terms of that predictability as there are years that look opposite of that,” Meyer said. 

The official messaging of the Utah Climate Center is that the combination of phases, cycles and weather patterns present a higher likelihood of conditions being normal to somewhat above normal compared to last year. However, that doesn’t preclude the possibility of a slightly underperforming winter, either.

Atmospheric river events will be key in establishing how strong the ski season is. The storms can switch the trajectory of the entire ski season in just a matter of days.

“If they skip over Utah, if they go around, we can have a bust year where many areas around us look valid like they’ve had very favorable wintertime conditions,” he said.

So, Meyer is focused on the next three months which will determine how much soil moisture can be preserved before heading into the snow accumulation season. There’s not a strong relationship between summer conditions and what will happen with winter weather patterns, but there is a carryover in terms of efficiency in the melting of the snowpack.

Meyer is hoping for a steady dose of fall storms and cold fronts to keep temperatures cool and prevent water from evaporating, helping to preserve as much moisture as possible once the summer rains have stopped.

Autumn is important to ensure the ground locks up as much soil moisture as possible, setting the stage for a positive spring runoff and efficient snow melt. Moisture that’s present when the ground freezes in will stay present throughout the winter until the melting occurs. Then, the water runs through the river systems and recharges the reservoirs.

Meyer said there’s been a trend in recent years where the soil has tended to “sponge up” a lot of the snow melt in the spring when drought conditions are amplified, even if there’s a decent snowpack in place. This prevents the water from flowing to where it’s intended to go.

October presents opportunities for early, and sometimes extreme, precipitation as the time when the climatological season of snowfall can begin. At the same time, fall is also becoming drier and the onset date for snowfall is retreating farther into the season. 

Meyer said in recent years the first snowfall in some parts of the state, particularly in lower elevations, has been pushed back into mid to late December. Higher elevations are less affected by the trend and tend to have a more steady accumulation.

But in terms of winter recreation, the overall quality of snow is not as good as it used to be. There’s been a general reduction in the snowpack across the state since the 1980s, and the background signal experts are seeing play out is not one of optimism in terms of winter conditions and snowpack, according to Meyer.

“We’ve seen a rather seismic shift in Utah’s winter conditions over the last 40 years and we expect that to continue to play out over the coming decades, and in some cases, in more egregious ways as the region continues to warm and we’re seeing a change in the types of winter storms we’re getting,” he said.

Forecasts are still a month or two away from having a more accurate pattern for how the wintertime will shape up.

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Heavy rains in August helped turn the summer around after a terrible June and July left Utah feeling hot and dry.

The state’s mountains are typically well-watered due to the seasonal monsoons, but last month was better than average. Utah received almost 3 inches of new precipitation in August, which is 178% of normal, according to the Sept. 1 Utah Climate and Water report.

“The fact that we got some monsoonal precipitation wasn’t at all surprising. The fact that it was above normal is kind of the cherry part. So, that’s positive,” said Jordan Clayton, a supervisor with the Utah Snow Survey.

Statewide, the water year-to-date precipitation is about 105% of normal. That’s about a 2% increase from July, putting the state on track for a typical year. 

Soil moisture saturation levels across Utah are at 39%, which is 7% lower than this time last year. The report said the monsoonal moisture provided a nice reprieve to the mountain soil, but it quickly started to dry up again.

“I’m guessing that if we don’t get some more moisture before the snow hits, that we’re going to wind up with below soil moisture conditions, but we’ll see what the next couple months bring in terms of moisture,” Clayton said.

Reservoir storage is also doing alright. Capacity is about 77% statewide. That’s 6% lower than July but right on par with last year’s capacity.

Some areas of the state including the northeastern Uintas and southwestern Utah have been able to retain a large percentage of storage capacity, but other areas such as the Beaver watershed and Tooele-Vernon Creek area have depleted resources at a faster rate.

The Weber-Ogden watershed, which includes Summit County, was around 76% capacity as of Sept. 1 compared to 84% last year. An average of 2.2 inches of rain fell in the region.

The Smith and Morehouse and Echo reservoirs had the greatest decrease in capacity between this summer and last. The Echo Reservoir was at 58% capacity, and the Smith and Morehouse Reservoir was at 76% compared to 72% and 96% last year, respectively.

The Rockport Reservoir saw about a 10% decrease in the last year, sitting at 73% in the latest report. The Jordanelle Reservoir was at 80% during both periods.

“While Utah’s reservoirs are generally in good shape, we continue to encourage water managers to conserve water where possible to prepare for the possibility of a return to drought conditions in future years,” the report stated.

Clayton said the summer is actually one of the busiest periods for National Resources Conservation Service staff because they’re maintaining and expanding their weather stations.

The team visits all 138 sites in Utah, as well as locations in Nevada and around Lake Tahoe, to ensure they’re working properly. New sites are also installed to the network, including one that’s already been built in Millcreek Canyon to replace annual manual measurements, as well as another site planned near Bears Ears National Monument.

Clayton didn’t have a lot of confidence in the connection between the El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) cycle and Utah. He noted there have been many inconsistencies between the weather patterns and winter conditions in Utah.

“Really what we need is those atmospheric rivers to develop when the jet streamlines up from the Pacific, kind of in a west-to-east direction, and it really can draw on a lot of that moisture and pour it into the Sierras and pour it into Utah. That’s when we really get our huge boosts in our snowpack,” he said.

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Opening day for Park City Mountain remains scheduled for Friday even as the area suffers through a spell of warm, dry weather.

The resort said it “is on track to open with its typical opening package, having taken advantage of intermittent cold weather and natural snow since late October.”

The plans, which are weather dependent, include opening terrain on the Park City and Canyons Village sides. The First Time and PayDay Express lifts are slated to open, as well as the Mine Cart carpet, on the Park City side. The Canyons Village side’s opening-day lineup is expected to include the cabriolet from the primary parking lot, the Red Pine gondola and the Saddleback Express and High Meadow lifts. The Sweet Pea carpet is also included. The opening-day terrain is expected to cover six trails across the two base areas.

The resort said it “will continue snowmaking operations and monitor the weather to expand terrain offerings in the coming weeks.”

Park City Mountain this ski season is marking the 60-year anniversary of the opening of Treasure Mountains, the precursor to today’s resort. There will be opening-day celebrations with disc jockeys at the two base areas and free limited-edition posters commemorating the anniversary. There will be two additional limited-edition posters distributed later in the ski season.

The opening of the ski season is a key day on the Park City calendar, even if it is normally scheduled at a time when there is only limited tourism in the community. Skiers and snowboarders in the Park City area and elsewhere in the region usually account for many of the people on the slopes during the opening weeks of the ski season, followed by the arrival of visitors from outside of Utah as the holidays approach.

Park City Mountain usually sets its opening day several weeks before the lifts at Deer Valley Resort begin turning. Opening day at Deer Valley is scheduled in December.

There has been only intermittent recent snow as preparations for the start of the ski season continued at Park City Mountain. Snow coverage at the lower elevations on the Park City side of the resort was visibly sparse on Tuesday.

The National Weather Service forecast midday on Tuesday called for sunny conditions with the high temperature reaching 56 degrees on Wednesday and rain possible on Wednesday night. The Thursday forecast called for a chance of rain followed by a chance for snow and rain, with little if any snow accumulation expected, and daytime temperatures reaching 47 degrees. Thursday night was forecast to be dry with temperatures in the range of 29 degrees.

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The Park City High School class of 2017 took to Dozier Field on a blustery Friday evening, June 9, 2017, to receive their diplomas and head out into the real world. Nearly 400 seniors qualified to graduate. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

Link to full gallery here: https://parkrecordphoto.smugmug.com/PHOTOS-PCHS-Graduation-2017/

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The Park City High School boys lacrosse team honored their seniors Friday evening, April 28, 2017, before the game against Davis High School at Dozier Field. The game was called due to weather at halftime, leaving the Miners with a 6-3 win. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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Local dog owners and their furry friends took to the Library Field Wednesday afternoon, March 1, 2017.  (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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Nearly 15″ of snow fell in Park City in 24 hours, leaving local homeowners out in their driveways, shoveling snow. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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In case you missed the excitement, this past weekend saw some snow atop the mountains of Park City. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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