The early weather predictions for the 2025-26 ski season are in, and the latest signs point to a winter that could sit somewhere between average and slightly lean for Utah’s mountains.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 56% chance conditions will stay neutral through the fall, with a weak La Niña possibly forming as winter gets underway before fading back to neutral in the spring.
“Based on this guidance and recent changes in the tropical Pacific, the forecast team narrowly favors La Niña thresholds being reached in three overlapping, 3-month seasons ( … during September-November, October-December, and November-January),” the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said in a Thursday report.
These early forecasts center on the ENSO patterns, short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. ENSO is a recurring pattern in Pacific Ocean temperatures that affects weather all over the world. It has three main phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral.
El Niño warms the equatorial Pacific, often shifting storms south and leaving the northern Rockies, including Utah, drier and warmer. La Niña cools those waters, nudging storms north and sometimes bringing colder, snowier conditions our way, while neutral years keep ocean temperatures near average and weather patterns closer to normal.
This year’s setup, neutral phases with a chance of weak La Niña, doesn’t lock the region into either extreme. Skiers may wish for a lifetime of La Niña’s cold, wet winters, but the season is expected to be weak and short-lived, according to the National Weather Service reports.
Given that it’s only August and a La Niña year isn’t guaranteed, OpenSnow meteorologist Alan Smith is cautious about predicting what the National Weather Service is calling an average winter. Instead, he’s seeing early evidence for a warmer, drier season.
“The signals for this winter favor below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures for most of the state,” said Smith in his Tuesday forecast.
But as the keepers of the Greatest Snow on Earth, the state’s below-average snowfall often beats out most other regions for depth, said Smith, and Utahns will take what they can get.
So, what does that mean for Park City skiers? Historically, neutral and weak La Niña years in Utah have produced everything from blockbuster winters to slow starts. The real difference tends to be timing.
Early-season snow in November and December can be hit-or-miss, which makes snowmaking a key part of getting runs open. By mid-season, January through March, the Wasatch still has the potential to pull in big storms, even if the long-range outlook leans toward average, said Smith.
In the winter of 2016-17, Park City Mountain saw 407 inches of snow, according to Ski Utah data. The very next year, 2017-18, barely reached 180 inches, one of the leanest totals in recent memory.
Both seasons align with Smith’s expectations for the year, qualifying as analog years marked by ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions and cooler-than-normal North Atlantic waters.
“However, two of the seven years examined (1997 and 2017) featured above-normal snowfall in the Wasatch Range (where most ski areas are located), so you never know,” said Smith.
This range is why both the National Weather Service and OpenSnow urge caution in reading too much into a long-term seasonal forecast.
While early data doesn’t look great, local conditions, storm tracks and short-term weather quirks can still turn an average year into something special.
In other words, it’s still August, so keep your skis tuned and fingers crossed. Winter is coming.