Meteorologists are predicting that a strong monsoon season will start this weekend, which could potentially last through the end of summer.
Forecasting group OpenSnow earlier this week released its 2026 North American Monsoon Season Update, authored by meteorologist Alan Smith. The report predicts “above normal” rain through most of the state, though specific figures were unavailable.
“On the heels of a record-setting heat wave across parts of the West in recent days, this monsoon pattern is coming in strong, and it looks like it is going to continue at an impressive clip through at least late July,” the forecast states.
The National Weather Service predicts the rainfall could start as early as this weekend. The detailed forecast calls for showers and a possible thunderstorm on Saturday as well as a 40% chance on Sunday.
Rain was also expected on Monday, with the chance of precipitation at 60%. New rainfall amounts were expected to be up to a quarter of an inch, with higher amounts possible during thunderstorms. There is also a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
With heavy rainfall comes an increased risk of flooding. No flood watches or advisories are in effect going into the weekend, but the Wasatch Back is inherently at an increased risk of flooding because of its canyons and slopes.
The OpenSnow forecast noted there were brief monsoon-like patterns in late June and early July.
Summit County Emergency Management Director Kathryn McMullin said county and state offices are ready if flooding does occur. She emphasized the county is alert, but there’s no need for fear.
“Preparedness is key,” said McMullin.
Summit County is working to prepare sandbags and organize volunteer teams if the need arises. Officials are also monitoring burn scars from past wildfires, but McMullin explained that those are away from residential areas.
McMullin advised residents to stay mindful of their own homes, too. Monitoring drainage paths and debris buildup is important in avoiding damage if flooding were to occur. One of the most important things residents can do is sign up for local, state and federal alert systems and ensure there are multiple ways to receive notifications.
Summit County has its own alert system and posts updates on social media. The National Weather Service also sends out wireless emergency alerts and broadcasts the NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards.
Smith advised being mindful of flash floods while recreating.
“If you’re outside in the backcountry or you’re watching radar, the thing I would pay attention to is slow-moving thunderstorm cells,” he said.
Smith continued, “If you get something that pops up, if it’s a strong looking cell and it’s not moving much at all, that means it could be sitting on top of that area. That also increases the potential for heavy rainfall and for flash flooding.”
If there’s any water on the road, McMullin said to remember the “turn around, don’t drown” adage. Flooding can also be reported to the nonemergency dispatch line, McMullin said. And above all, Smith and McMullin say, pay attention to local National Weather Service warnings.
Though the rain may be welcome in a dry summer following record-breaking low snowpack, there’s no telling if the above-average precipitation will continue into winter.
Smith said summer precipitation doesn’t have a strong correlation with winter precipitation. The strong weather patterns creating the ongoing “super El Niño” could continue to improve the outlook on winter snow conditions, though it’s still too early to say.
“El Niño is rapidly strengthening this summer, and long-range projections still indicate this could potentially be a record-strong El Niño heading into the winter months,” the forecast states.