The long-awaited change in our weather pattern has finally arrived! Unfortunately, as we have discussed in recent weeks, it did not arrive in time to prevent us from falling into record-low snowpack territory. If we are going to suffer, we might as well set records, eh?
Our initial system this week will bring high elevation snow off and on to the mountains around Park City through Thursday. This system is arriving in the form of a cut-off low-pressure system off the California coast, sending moisture inland toward Utah.
Due to the warm antecedent conditions ahead of this storm, along with a generally mild southwesterly flow during the storm, snow levels are going to remain elevated throughout the event — likely at or above 7,000 feet. That means the base elevations of Park City and Deer Valley will likely see rain at times through this storm.
The heaviest precipitation should fall through the day on Wednesday, with a gradual decrease in intensity Wednesday night into early Thursday. By Thursday evening, our total accumulation on the upper sections of the mountain should range from 6 to 12 inches.
Deer Valley, which notoriously does well in southwest flows, could be on the higher end of that range if all goes according to plan.
As mentioned previously, however, the snow levels will be a mitigating factor for accumulations, especially on the lower mountain. We could see a stark contrast in new snowfall amounts from the bottom of the mountain to the upper elevations.
As for ski conditions, while Wednesday will be the main storm day, Thursday may offer the best chances for powder with aggregate totals, terrain openings, and slightly cooler temperatures.
The good news is that after a break in the action for the holiday weekend, all weather models agree on more chances for snow arriving next week. From roughly Tuesday through Saturday of next week (Feb. 17-21), we could have multiple waves of energy move inland from an eastern Pacific trough. This pattern will also bring colder air, allowing for lower snow levels and higher snow quality. Accumulations appear potentially significant when considering the full forecast for the next 15 days.
Fingers and toes are crossed that this pattern comes to fruition. It might be too late to salvage a “normal” season here in the Wasatch, but I would like to avoid the infamy that comes with a “worst season ever” designation. Keep your snow dances going!