Park City’s mountain skyline looked a little bit like winter this weekend, with pouring rain in town and fresh snow coating the upper peaks. The storm marked the first real taste of the winter season, but forecasters say it’s far too early to make conclusions about the year ahead.
“Our system came in like a wrecking ball yesterday. Northern Utah experienced incredible, record-breaking rainfall, accompanied by substantial mountain snow,” said OpenSnow meteorologist Evan Thayer in his weekend forecast.
The Salt Lake City International Airport logged 2.47 inches of rain — its second wettest calendar day on record — while Little Cottonwood picked up about 8 inches of snow before temperatures came back up. The weather conditions closed Guardsman Pass on Saturday due to slick roads and wet snowfall.
“Still, even with this past storm, Utah overall is still in a drought and any moisture we can get is valuable. I will happily take another showery weekend if it means feeding our lakes and reservoirs,” said Thayer.
Thayer expects that most of the new snow will melt in the coming days as the region enters a warmer, drier pattern.
“We are going to see a quiet drying pattern for the next few days with warming temperatures,” Thayer said. “I think almost all of this snow will melt, with perhaps the exception of a few of the highest, most shaded northerly aspects. I do not think this will cause any snow stability issues for the winter, as snow in early October usually melts off completely.”
Last season’s early November snowfall, followed by several weeks of unseasonably warm, dry weather, led to a persistent weak layer near the base of the snowpack that crippled its stability for much of the winter.
This time, with warmer air expected to melt the early snow completely, forecasters don’t anticipate the same kind of fragile foundation forming. At least not yet.
The National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center are both forecasting above-average temperatures and near-to-below-average precipitation for most of October.
Another round of rain could move in next weekend as a weather system pushes inland from the Pacific. However, temperatures are expected to stay warm enough that any snow will likely be limited to the highest peaks above 10,000 feet, according to the National Weather Service.
Long-range climate forecasts suggest ocean conditions will stay near neutral, possibly trending toward a weak La Niña — a setup that usually means slightly below-average snowfall for northern Utah. That pattern is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a cycle of Pacific Ocean warming and cooling that helps shape weather patterns across the West.
Saturday’s rain and mountain snow made for a dramatic scene, but forecasters agree conditions are more like fall. Early melt will prevent the weak snow layers that caused trouble last year, and the long-range outlook suggests Utah’s mountains may ease into winter slowly rather than suddenly.
With Park City Mountain and Deer Valley Resort aiming for mid-November openings, there’s still plenty of time for the mountains to build a solid base before winter gets underway. The first day of winter is Dec. 21.