Statewide population trends are leveling out and the effects of COVID-19 on estimates are in the rearview mirror, according to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
It’s unsurprising with recent density, traffic and housing changes in places like Heber City that Wasatch County is one of 21 counties that saw a period of growth between July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024.
Summit County, however, experienced the opposite of its neighbor and was one of only eight of the 29 counties in the state to see a population decline.
Summit County Economic Development and Housing Director Jeff Jones said the county has been on a steady decline since 2022, when there was a loss of 134 people. The next year, there was a loss of 286 residents. Then, the Utah Population Committee estimated a loss of 186 for 2024.
Jones said this kind of decline causes a problem in Summit County when it comes to filling newly created and available jobs. While the community lost roughly 606 residents over a three-year period, jobs increased by 3,845.
“That means in order to service those new jobs, you have to import a lot of labor to make up, not only the new jobs … but you also have to backfill that 224 households or 606 persons,” Jones said.
Summit County, which sees more affluent individuals moving into areas like Park City, is set to see a steady decline over the next 10 years, according to Jones. But over that same time period, the county will gain 6,600 jobs.
That imbalance, Jones said, will cause transportation systems challenges, labor availability and a higher percentage of people in “dependent-age cohort groups” as opposed to “working-age cohort groups.”
Across the Wasatch Back, transportation has already been a pressing issue, and organizations like High Valley Transit have been working to address gaps and improve productivity. Zero-vehicle households in Summit County are most concentrated in neighborhoods like Trailside and Kimball Junction.
In Wasatch County, Heber City residents are the highest users of High Valley Transit.
While Summit County faces challenges with a loss of residents, next-door Wasatch County is experiencing the effects of a mass of positive net-migration and natural increases. The population accounted for in all estimates does not include seasonal residents or tourists.
With a 2.3% increase from 2023 to 2024, Wasatch County has seen an increase of 868 residents. Of that number, there’s a 29% natural increase and a 71% net migration. While natural increase estimates account for births and deaths in the observed area, net-in migration represents the number of individuals who move to the state or county. Overall, Wasatch County contributes to 1.7% of state growth, and Utah has surpassed 3.5 million residents overall.
The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute found more counties are experiencing a population decline than in the previous few years, but also that the greater Salt Lake and southwestern economic regions continue to expand. Fast-growth counties, like Wasatch County, are continually experiencing high net in-migration rates.
Jones said that, for high-cost markets like Summit County, “the wealthier people move in, but those who are more financially challenged … they are the folks that have a tendency to leave markets in search of more affordable offerings.”
Schools in the area, he said, have lost enrollment because findings show that younger families are leaving the area only to be replaced by older adults with fewer kids and more disposable income.
In November, 2024, Summit County was found to lead the state in short-term rentals, found on sites like Airbnb and VRBO. Monthly short-term rental listings increased by 39.4% from 2021 to 2023. At the time, Jones said he believes that kind of market drives up housing prices in Summit County, which is a trend that been reported nationwide.
Jones said housing markets are defined by owner-occupied housing, renter-occupied housing and vacant units, which is where short-term rentals and second homes are categorized. Historically, Jones said Summit County has seen a large percentage of vacant units.
“Now we have more people because of the short-term rental market in the county at all times, but then the price of real estate starts to go up because people are buying real estate in order to place that real estate into the investment market,” Jones said.
While Wasatch County might seem like the more affordable option in comparison to Summit County, areas like Heber City have seen challenges with perpetually rising housing costs.
Business owners and individuals like Tori Broughton, who manages Heber’s Trek Bicycles store, said that she has had trouble finding and keeping employees because they are unable to find affordable housing.
Traffic in the area has been under pressure as well, prompting city officials to support a bypass route by the Utah Department of Transportation around U.S. 40. UDOT officials, however, have said that a bypass route will not completely solve the problem.
Density has also been a hot topic in Heber City, and city councilors recently approved an agreement that allows developers to move forward with a large annexation project in the North Village.
But change, Wasatch County Manager Dustin Grabau said, comes with “growing pains.”
“I think we’ve done our best to try to hold on to the unique character of our community while accommodating as much as possible … new residents and people who really love the alley and have lived out here their whole lives,” Grabau said.
In terms of housing, Grabau said there are enough units entitled across all county jurisdictions to accommodate the projected population growth.
“Affordability of those units, I feel like, is a whole separate question,” Grabau said.
As more individuals move to the area, there is also an effect on cost of living. Jones said that, when you look at cost of living differences between counties, Summit County is 35.1 points above the national average while Wasatch County is 7.3 points above the national average.
“If you’re in a higher cost market, you have to offer more money on an hourly basis in order to attract that worker, which means it’s then passed down to customers,” Jones said. “And so anybody that’s living within that county is also paying that increased cost of living.”
As Wasatch County housing prices and certain rates increase, a similar effect can be seen.
According to Jared Wright of Heber Light & Power, rates will see an increase of approximately 13% per household. That change will vary based on unit, however, and isn’t necessarily for each home. Wright said companies like Rocky Mountain Power, are making similar changes statewide. For Heber Light & Power, the rate increase accounts for necessary adjustments in the area.
In part, he said, the increase is due to growth in the county. Otherwise, Wright said it is due to increased usage in the area and capital projects like a substation that cost $20 million and is designed to protect the power company through redundancy efforts.
Wright said for Heber City, the rate change involves “not only all of the density but everything that’s been annexed” in.
Across the county, Grabau said there are “relatively high standards” for the development process and “appropriately high standards” for the growth that’s happened over recent years. Although there is room for development and increased density, he said the county is particular about what kind of density is put in place.
Ultimately, though, Grabau said that individual areas are responsible for their own levels of growth.
“It’s up to those communities to determine what they feel like is an appropriate level of growth,” Grabau said. “I think there’s good and bad that comes with change. The thing that we can be certain of is that things will change, and so what I think we try to do is to maximize the good of that change and minimize the bad.”