Another weekend has come and gone. Once again, we had a weekend storm bring snow showers to the region. Our theme of weekend storms this season is getting a bit out of hand. It’s not just that it is consistently snowing on the weekend — it’s also that it’s not snowing any other time.
Yet again, our work week across the Wasatch and Wasatch Back is dry with mostly sunny skies. Generally mild temperatures will make any days spent outdoors feel comfortable through Friday of this week, although it may be a bit chilly in the mornings when cold air sinks to the floor of the valleys.
Unfortunately, despite these consistent weekend storms for the past month or more, we have not had the type of season most skiers and snowboarders desire. The storms are generally weak and bring modest snowfall amounts. As a forecaster, I cannot remember the last time we had a storm that brought significant snowfall statewide. Certainly, there have been none so far this season.
Due to our generally infrequent and lackluster storms, our snowpack is continuing to fall further behind average. Right now, Thaynes Canyon (Park City Mountain) snotel (snow telemetry) site sits at just 62% of median for the date.
We are, statistically, about halfway through the season. Half our typical season’s snow falls before this point, and half falls after. That means that we would need roughly 140% of normal snowfall in the second half to finish the season near normal levels. Not impossible, but at this point unlikely.
While we look destined to close out January on a dry note, February is showing some signs of being more promising. This weekend we are going to see an atmospheric river take aim at areas just to our north.
Low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and high pressure to the south of Utah will direct a hose of moisture off the Pacific Ocean, across northern California, and through the northern Great Basin toward the Tetons of Wyoming.
Utah, and more specifically, the Wasatch Mountains, will be on the southern periphery of this firehose of moisture this weekend. You can see this clearly when we look at the ECMWF (European) model’s forecast precipitation through this weekend:
Being on the south side of this area of focused precipitation also means that we are on the warm side of the storm. Mild air will remain over the region through this weekend. Snow levels will start high and could trend higher through the weekend.
Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely this weekend in town with dense, wet snow falling on the mountain tops. Westerly winds will also be strong thanks to this strong jet stream and tight gradient.
If you are desperate for powder, your best bet this weekend is to head north. The closer you can get to the Tetons, the more likely you are to have good snow. If you can’t travel, then getting as high in elevation as you can will be the key to getting out of the rain/snow mix that will be possible below 8,000 feet.
There are some early indications that we could finally break our dry week-stormy weekend pattern next week as models are hinting at another, colder storm midweek. At this point, we need to get into a consistent cycle of storms to put a dent in our snowpack deficit. Think snow!
For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app.