Winter is once again on our doorstep in Summit County with fresh snow already falling on our mountains and even in town. Palpable excitement has been building in the community, as it always does this time of year.
Last season, we saw above-average snowfall across the state — a fantastic encore to the record snowfall in 2022-23. Now, many are wondering if it is possible we could go for the hat trick of three consecutive good seasons.
I am here to take a hard look at what we are seeing currently in the weather world, and what that could mean for our winter.
Firstly, I want to reiterate how difficult seasonal forecasts are. They are so difficult, in fact, that I typically don’t like to use the word “forecast” in association with an entire season. It implies some type of certainty.
In actuality, the only certainty in seasonal forecasting is uncertainty. In Utah, there just isn’t much correlation between El Nino/La Nina or any other known atmospheric or oceanic condition that would guarantee us a good or bad year. With that said, let’s dive into what we could see in this winter outlook.
ENSO Cycle
This single biggest influence on seasonal weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is ENSO. ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation, is the scientific term for the phases of the oceanic sea-surface temperatures that translate to El Nino or La Nina events.
Most of us are familiar with these terms, but may not know the specifics. Essentially, there is a relatively small area of water in the central Pacific Ocean known to have a great influence on our weather patterns. Warmer-than-average temperatures at the surface of the ocean in this region mean we are in an El Nino event. Conversely, cooler-than-normal water temperatures mean La Nina.
After a weak La Nina in 2022-23, we went to a moderate to strong El Nino last season. As we know, Utah did extremely well in that weak La Nina, but also did fairly well in the subsequent El Nino.
This year, we are moving back toward La Nina. NOAA gives us a 75% of reaching La Nina conditions by the time we move into the heart of winter.
However, not all El Nino/La Nina events are created equal. Not only can each event have its own oceanic signature, but you can also see weak, moderate or strong events of each. The strength of the event can have a large impact on the effects as well.
This year, we are currently forecasted to see just a weak La Nina event.
You can see that the mean of the forecast models show our ONI index (the measure of ENSO temperature/strength) bottoming out around -1.0C. That is still considered a weak event.
For forecasting purposes, let us now check analog years — or years in which we also had weak La Nina conditions. This may give us the best sense of how we may do. Over the past 30 years, there are six previous winter seasons that had weak La Nina events ongoing:
- 2000-01
- 2005-06
- 2008-09
- 2016-17
- 2017-18
- 2022-23
Using these seasons as guidance, let’s look at how we fared.
During these weak La Nina seasons over the past 30 years, Thaynes Canyon Snotel station (located within Park City Mountain Resort) recorded five out of six years with a peak total snowpack above the 30-year median of 23.4” of snow-water-equivalent.
I acknowledge that six seasons is a small sample size, and it can be easy to draw a tenuous correlation where there may not be any, especially when you have an all-time record season such as 2022-23 in the mix. With that said, overall these six seasons averaged 129% of median snowpack which is encouraging. Notably, the 2017-18 was well below average — a further indication that anything is possible.
Statewide, we also have a general lean toward above-average seasons. You can see each of these seasons graphically compared to the statewide median snowpack (smooth lime green line).
Zooming out on the entire west, we can also get a feel for how these six winters performed in other regions.
You can see that California and the Intermountain West did particularly well. Contrary to what you might expect in a stronger La Nina, the Pacific Northwest actually has lower-than-normal precipitation anomalies.
As for temperatures, this is what we saw in the temp anomalies during these 6 winter seasons.
Around average temperatures for Utah with cooler-than-normal temperatures to our north.
Other Factors
Of course, there are other factors that could influence our weather aside from just ENSO. There is growing interest in the QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation) and its impacts on snow in the west. While it’s hard to use this as a predictor of anything, I can say that its current phase is generally considered to be favorable for snow in the western states.
There will also be other teleconnections such as the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). However, these are more temporal and move through their respective phases throughout the winter and tend to lead to short or medium-range patterns rather than seasonal ones. We will just have to hope the MJO spends plenty of time in favorable stages this winter.
Conclusion
Again, none of this is a guarantee of anything. At best, you are just ever-so-slightly loading the dice in your favor. Anything can happen and after two above-average winters in a row, perhaps we are due to be at or below-average. Who knows? While I like to explore the possibilities, it’s not typically worth expending too much effort on seasonal forecasting, especially in Utah. Hope for the best and be ready for anything. One thing is for certain, Utah will get a lot more snow than most places! We always do.
For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app.