Chairlifts are spinning again in the Wasatch, including Park City, where Park City Mountain Resort is running eight chairlifts. Deer Valley is also scheduled to open this upcoming weekend (Dec. 2). There is always a buzz this time of year as ski season returns to the Wasatch. This excitement is particularly palpable coming off last season, where long-standing snowfall records fell almost as fast as the flakes themselves.
Unfortunately, there is a cruel reality to our beautiful mix of seasons in the mountains. No matter how much snow you saw the previous year, you are doomed to start from scratch again at the onset of the next.
That brings us to today, where we are seeing a more understated start to the cold season in Summit County. While we have not seen the ceaseless storms of last winter yet, we have seen at least some snow this month. It has, however, been in modest quantities thus far.
Thankfully, periods of cold air have allowed us to utilize snow-making to help establish a base on high-trafficked parts of the mountain.
A few weeks ago, when there was no snow in the forecast, my 3-year-old son asked what I did for a job. I have been waiting for this for a while — only recently had he mastered the concept of adults having professions and this was my first ever opportunity to tell him what his dad does for a living. “Well, my job is to tell people when it’s going to snow,” I told him proudly.
His eyes lit up excitedly, “When’s it going to snow, Dad?”
I should have expected this question. “Um.. well, I actually don’t know when it will snow, buddy.”
Wrong answer.
After a long pause, “Dad, you’re not very good at this.”
Harsh criticism. Leave it to a 3-year-old to keep you humble.
Luckily, I had my shot at redemption in recent storms, and I just told him today that we have more snow coming this weekend. He is starting to know when snow is coming based simply on Dad’s mood. Right now Dad’s mood is good.
As a forecaster, I can tell you there are three main ingredients that make up a good winter storm. The first is moisture. This is the fuel that primes a storm. Then, there is storm dynamics. This is the focused energy that provides the lift necessary to facilitate precipitation. The final ingredient is cold air. This part is self-explanatory, but cold air is needed for the precipitation to fall as snow. Colder air also leads to higher snow-to-liquid ratios and, therefore, higher snow totals.
Our biggest storms here in Utah have all three of these ingredients in spades. The storm that is coming this weekend, has two of these ingredients — moisture and cold air — but lacks some of the dynamic energy.
From Friday through the end of the weekend, we will see these disorganized waves of moisture move into Utah. While we may lack storm energy, the mountains themselves will help to provide “lift” that can generate snowfall.
Snow is likely in Summit County and the rest of the Wasatch Mountains off and on Friday through Monday. Temperatures should stay cold enough for snow levels to remain well below the base of the resorts.
It’s a long duration event, so be patient, but by Monday snowfall totals could be quite good:
At this point, I would say 10-20″ of new snow in the highest elevations of Summit County. In the valleys, amounts are likely to be considerably lower, but some accumulating snowfall is certainly likely.
This is a great way to start December and will provide ample opportunity for our resorts to get more terrain open quickly as we march toward a busy holiday period.
For up-to-date forecasts, you can subscribe to Evan’s Utah Daily Snow forecast on OpenSnow.com and the OpenSnow app.