The roads across Park City will get a bit busier in just a few weeks as a wave of skiers and snowboarders begin to descend on the mountain town, marking the start of the 2024-25 winter season.

Officials from Park City Mountain, Deer Valley Resort, Woodward Park City and the Utah Olympic Legacy Foundation joined Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games spokesperson Tom Kelly for a moderated discussion about the upcoming season on Friday afternoon at the Stein Eriksen Lodge for the Park City Chamber & Visitors Bureau’s annual tourism fall forum.

The discussion highlighted updates from Ski Utah as well as local resorts’ key plans for this winter, including new lifts and infrastructure at Deer Valley and Park City Mountain as well as what they’re doing to prepare for the return of the Winter Games in 2034.

Ski Utah President and CEO Nathan Rafferty said the 2002 Olympics helped the state make a name for itself, and tourism has increased since. Utah has seen a 15% increase in skier visits over the past five years. 

Around 6.75 million skier visits were recorded across the state’s 15 resorts during the 2023-24 season, down from the record-breaking 2022-23 season, which saw 7.1 million skier visits. Utah saw about a quarter of the total visits to the Intermountain region, which includes Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming, during the last ski season. However, Rafferty said the state is picking up ever so slightly to capture more visitors.

He also touted the financial impact of the skiing and snowboarding industry not only on the state, but the local economy. The ski industry contributed around $2.7 billion in visitor spending with an average expenditure of $320 per day.

Park City’s overall tourism industry saw $2.2 billion in economic impact with visitors spending $1.6 billion, a 7% increase, according to Park City Chamber/Bureau President and CEO Jennifer Wesselhoff. There were also 3.7 million overnight visitors, a 4% increase in visitor volume compared to 2022, according to preliminary data presented from the 2023 tourism impact study.

Around $247 million was generated in state and local tax collections. Summit County saw an increase in every tourism-related category over the last nine months, including a 3% increase in sales tax collections, a 4% increase in the Recreation, Arts and Parks tax, and a 5% increase in transient room and restaurant tax collections.

Summer lodging numbers were up about 2% for an average occupancy rate of 35%. Rates also increased about 6% for an average of $350 a night.

However, Wesselhoff said winter numbers are off to a slow start. 

Reservations on the books are pacing about 3% above average for all of winter, November through March. December is down 7% and January is down 9%, but February and March are outperforming the pacing from last year at 20% and 14% above average, respectively. Room rates overall are strong, but there is some variance month to month. The average winter rate is $950 a night. 

The upcoming election might have some travelers wary, while others might just be waiting for more snow to fall. There’s also increased competition with more Americans choosing to travel overseas. 

While the forecast for the upcoming season puts Utah in the “tweener zone” for a mild, snowy winter, officials are optimistic the 2024-25 ski season will be another successful one. 

The Chamber/Bureau invested in a rebranding effort, Mountainkind, to attract environmentally conscious, luxury travelers who want to spend time outdoors. Wesselhoff expects couples, families, sports enthusiasts, foodies and outdoor recreationists to visit Park City this winter.

“We’re thrilled to embark on a new season in winter’s favorite town, and we just know it’s going to be another incredible season,” Wesselhoff said.

Susie English, Deer Valley’s vice president of marketing, highlighted how the resort’s expansion into Wasatch County is part of its expanded excellence mission. Deer Valley East Village will open around 300 acres of new skiable terrain, 20 runs and 500 parking spots this season — about a year earlier than expected. Employee housing has also been a big focus of the resort, which plans to build a 200-bed development called Ski Rail near the Snow Park base.

Park City Mountain Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Deirdra Walsh discussed how the resort is dedicated to enhancing the visitor experience by creating an innovative, welcoming experience on the mountain such as improving snowmaking capabilities for this winter.

Woodward Park City General Manager Gar Trayner, a 2002 Olympian for Great Britain, and Utah Olympic Legacy Foundation Chief Operating Officer Calum Clark spoke about the inclusive, collaborative nature of the ski industry in Utah. 

They said they want to lower the barrier to participating in winter sports, and to partner with other community organizations such as the National Ability Center to empower youth and athletes as well as promote winter sports legacy.

Four-time Olympic speed skater Catherine Raney-Norman, chair of the Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games, emphasized the opportunity for the 2034 Olympics to help redefine culture and community in the state. 

She said officials learned a lot from the Summer Games in Paris. Everyone has come back rejuvenated and ready to reimagine what the Olympics could mean for Utah — to shift how to improve the lives of residents, not just make it onto the map.

“We can think bigger, and that’s what we should be doing. We can think about the opportunities that go beyond just buildings and infrastructure and transportation, right? That for us is the promise and the opportunity of the next Games,” Raney-Norman said.

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Winter’s start is still about 100 days away, and while the long-range forecasts are still in the icebox, climate experts are skeptical Utah will see another record-breaking cold season this year as the current trends suggest a limited opportunity to build an outstanding snowpack.

A three-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a general warming pattern throughout most of the southern states with below-normal chances of precipitation in December, January and February.

The outlook gives a vague, general forecast of what the 2024-25 ski season could look like, but it’s hardly the most accurate. For a better sense, experts also look at current and past conditions to determine what might happen this winter.

Jonathan Meyer, the assistant state climatologist at the Utah Climate Center, tries to connect situation awareness with the outcomes experts expect to play out over sub-seasonal timescales, which is several weeks ahead to a month out, and then analyze the forecasts a few months to half a year forward.

The Utah Climate Center is charged with maintaining and archiving the state’s weather and climate records as well as providing a source of data and tools for all stakeholders ranging from individuals in the general public to larger state and federal agencies. Staff analyze conditions on the ground and how weather or climate events affect Utah’s landscape and impact conditions such as drought.

Meyer has been busy this summer monitoring the emergence of drought conditions throughout the state during the monsoon season, which was off to a pretty slow start this year. It was a very warm, dry transition from spring to summer and climate experts were worried about what would happen if those impacts returned after a quiet period.

Monsoonal rains returned over the last few weeks, providing cool relief and a decent amount of precipitation, particularly in northern Utah. Conditions have already started to dry out, but it was still a nice period of respite.

“Overall, the monsoon season hasn’t been tremendously underperforming, although I guess I wouldn’t necessarily call it a resounding success in terms of long-term drought relief, but it’s gotten us through in a way that has sort of held us neutral in terms of drought impacts,” Meyer said. 

Experts are also looking at the possibility of a La Niña winter, which occurs when conditions are about a half degree or colder than normal. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 74% chance a La Niña will persist during the 2024-25 season, and it’s expected to be weak.

During these conditions, the jet stream tends to become a little bit wavy and takes the storm track farther north into the Pacific Northwest, so the desert southwest tends to be drier, according to Meyer. He noted that’s a sweeping generalization and Utah isn’t usually affected by what the rotating El Niño-La Niña cycle is doing — making it hard to predict the winter.

“During La Niña we can expect a great likelihood that the far southern portions of the state will be drier than normal and at times that can leak up and influence the central and potentially northern Utah conditions. But when we look historically … there are just as many years that look familiar in terms of that predictability as there are years that look opposite of that,” Meyer said. 

The official messaging of the Utah Climate Center is that the combination of phases, cycles and weather patterns present a higher likelihood of conditions being normal to somewhat above normal compared to last year. However, that doesn’t preclude the possibility of a slightly underperforming winter, either.

Atmospheric river events will be key in establishing how strong the ski season is. The storms can switch the trajectory of the entire ski season in just a matter of days.

“If they skip over Utah, if they go around, we can have a bust year where many areas around us look valid like they’ve had very favorable wintertime conditions,” he said.

So, Meyer is focused on the next three months which will determine how much soil moisture can be preserved before heading into the snow accumulation season. There’s not a strong relationship between summer conditions and what will happen with winter weather patterns, but there is a carryover in terms of efficiency in the melting of the snowpack.

Meyer is hoping for a steady dose of fall storms and cold fronts to keep temperatures cool and prevent water from evaporating, helping to preserve as much moisture as possible once the summer rains have stopped.

Autumn is important to ensure the ground locks up as much soil moisture as possible, setting the stage for a positive spring runoff and efficient snow melt. Moisture that’s present when the ground freezes in will stay present throughout the winter until the melting occurs. Then, the water runs through the river systems and recharges the reservoirs.

Meyer said there’s been a trend in recent years where the soil has tended to “sponge up” a lot of the snow melt in the spring when drought conditions are amplified, even if there’s a decent snowpack in place. This prevents the water from flowing to where it’s intended to go.

October presents opportunities for early, and sometimes extreme, precipitation as the time when the climatological season of snowfall can begin. At the same time, fall is also becoming drier and the onset date for snowfall is retreating farther into the season. 

Meyer said in recent years the first snowfall in some parts of the state, particularly in lower elevations, has been pushed back into mid to late December. Higher elevations are less affected by the trend and tend to have a more steady accumulation.

But in terms of winter recreation, the overall quality of snow is not as good as it used to be. There’s been a general reduction in the snowpack across the state since the 1980s, and the background signal experts are seeing play out is not one of optimism in terms of winter conditions and snowpack, according to Meyer.

“We’ve seen a rather seismic shift in Utah’s winter conditions over the last 40 years and we expect that to continue to play out over the coming decades, and in some cases, in more egregious ways as the region continues to warm and we’re seeing a change in the types of winter storms we’re getting,” he said.

Forecasts are still a month or two away from having a more accurate pattern for how the wintertime will shape up.

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Heavy rains in August helped turn the summer around after a terrible June and July left Utah feeling hot and dry.

The state’s mountains are typically well-watered due to the seasonal monsoons, but last month was better than average. Utah received almost 3 inches of new precipitation in August, which is 178% of normal, according to the Sept. 1 Utah Climate and Water report.

“The fact that we got some monsoonal precipitation wasn’t at all surprising. The fact that it was above normal is kind of the cherry part. So, that’s positive,” said Jordan Clayton, a supervisor with the Utah Snow Survey.

Statewide, the water year-to-date precipitation is about 105% of normal. That’s about a 2% increase from July, putting the state on track for a typical year. 

Soil moisture saturation levels across Utah are at 39%, which is 7% lower than this time last year. The report said the monsoonal moisture provided a nice reprieve to the mountain soil, but it quickly started to dry up again.

“I’m guessing that if we don’t get some more moisture before the snow hits, that we’re going to wind up with below soil moisture conditions, but we’ll see what the next couple months bring in terms of moisture,” Clayton said.

Reservoir storage is also doing alright. Capacity is about 77% statewide. That’s 6% lower than July but right on par with last year’s capacity.

Some areas of the state including the northeastern Uintas and southwestern Utah have been able to retain a large percentage of storage capacity, but other areas such as the Beaver watershed and Tooele-Vernon Creek area have depleted resources at a faster rate.

The Weber-Ogden watershed, which includes Summit County, was around 76% capacity as of Sept. 1 compared to 84% last year. An average of 2.2 inches of rain fell in the region.

The Smith and Morehouse and Echo reservoirs had the greatest decrease in capacity between this summer and last. The Echo Reservoir was at 58% capacity, and the Smith and Morehouse Reservoir was at 76% compared to 72% and 96% last year, respectively.

The Rockport Reservoir saw about a 10% decrease in the last year, sitting at 73% in the latest report. The Jordanelle Reservoir was at 80% during both periods.

“While Utah’s reservoirs are generally in good shape, we continue to encourage water managers to conserve water where possible to prepare for the possibility of a return to drought conditions in future years,” the report stated.

Clayton said the summer is actually one of the busiest periods for National Resources Conservation Service staff because they’re maintaining and expanding their weather stations.

The team visits all 138 sites in Utah, as well as locations in Nevada and around Lake Tahoe, to ensure they’re working properly. New sites are also installed to the network, including one that’s already been built in Millcreek Canyon to replace annual manual measurements, as well as another site planned near Bears Ears National Monument.

Clayton didn’t have a lot of confidence in the connection between the El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) cycle and Utah. He noted there have been many inconsistencies between the weather patterns and winter conditions in Utah.

“Really what we need is those atmospheric rivers to develop when the jet streamlines up from the Pacific, kind of in a west-to-east direction, and it really can draw on a lot of that moisture and pour it into the Sierras and pour it into Utah. That’s when we really get our huge boosts in our snowpack,” he said.

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The Park City High School boys lacrosse team honored their seniors Friday evening, April 28, 2017, before the game against Davis High School at Dozier Field. The game was called due to weather at halftime, leaving the Miners with a 6-3 win. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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The Town Race Series slalomed on C.B.’s Run at Park City Moutnain Resort Monday afternoon, March 13, 2017. Locals were able to sign up and participate in the event. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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Skiers and snowboarders from at least three different states convened at Park City Mountain Resort to participate in the USASA Big Mountain West Series Championship halfpipe and slopestyle courses. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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Athletes from around the country convened in Park City at the Basin Recreation Fieldhouse for the 16th annual Winter Classic tournament this past weekend. The girls competed in events such as vault, uneven bars, floor routine and balance beam. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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The White Pine Touring Center offers lessons to those that wish to learn how to cross-country ski at the Park City Golf Course Thursday afternoon, Feb. 23, 2017. The lesson, lasting only an hour, teaches the basics of cross-country skiing. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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The How We [=] Move art exhibit at the Kimball Transit Center officially opened Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2017, with an opening reception and artist talk by Kevin Arthofer. The event walked attendees through the creation of the artwork and how it was brought to life. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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The Canyons Village kicked off their spring concert series Saturday, Feb. 18, 2017, with a handful of musical acts. Vacationers and locals alike are invited to the free event to listen to the music, enjoy food and drink and to play in the snow. (Tanzi Propst/Park Record)

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