Park City hotels are projected to be nearly 100% booked on several days during the period between Christmas and New Year’s, pointing to the likelihood of a jammed holiday stretch for the tourism industry.
The Park City Chamber/Bureau’s most recent occupancy forecast, dated Dec. 15, showed numbers climbing from 65% on Dec. 24 to a peak of 99% on Dec. 29.
Forecasts for other dates during the holidays:
• 67% on Dec. 25
• 83% on Dec. 26
• 92% on Dec. 27
• 96% on Dec. 28
• 95% on Dec. 30
• 87% on Dec. 31
• 73% on Jan. 1
• 58% on Jan. 2
The projections through the holidays are well ahead of the actual numbers from a year ago as well as the forecasts for the same dates during the most recent winter. The stark differences in the projections between the two years highlight the widespread concern about the spread of the novel coronavirus that influenced the early weeks of the last ski season.
The projections for January, important since that is the month the Sundance Film Festival is scheduled, are also ahead of those from the year before.
The forecast is based on a survey of 18 properties that represent a range of traditional lodging options like economy hotels, luxury hotels and short-term vacation rentals. Bookings and cancellations since Dec. 15 are not included.
The strong numbers are likely influenced by both Christmas and New Year’s being Saturdays, affording many people consecutive three-day weekends.
“While we are cautiously optimistic, given the levels of hotel bookings in place for the month of January, we have to be realistic in our expectation that some of this will drop due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant around the USA impacting travel plans,” Jennifer Wesselhoff, the president and CEO of the Chamber/Bureau, said in a prepared response to a Park Record inquiry.
Wesselhoff also said the Chamber/Bureau is “watching covid cases carefully across the country and modifying our advertising efforts accordingly.”
She noted the weather influences travelers to Park City. Although a spell of warm, dry weather marked the early days of the ski season, the snow has since arrived and the National Weather Service forecast on Thursday morning called for snow through Wednesday.
“We are only too aware of the fragility of tourism and we can never ‘count our eggs before they’re hatched,'” she said.
The lodging numbers are critical to the overall Park City economy since people visiting tend to also spend heavily in the resort, restaurant, retail and transportation sectors.
Wesselhoff, meanwhile, said the projections are in the range of those at the same time during the 2019-2020 winter, prior to the coronavirus-forced shutdowns that ended that ski season early.
“Compared to the pre-covid 2019/2020 season or a mostly ‘normal year,’ the reservations on the books are pacing in line with bookings during the same period, with some days outperforming historic actuals, and other days underperforming,” she said.
The Park City economy during the 2020-2021 ski season, the first full one of the coronavirus era, outperformed expectations as skiers and snowboarders arrived in large numbers for an activity they saw as being a safe option with the sickness spreading.