Park City-area lodging numbers are projected to soften through the remainder of the ski season as compared to the numbers last year, even amid the snowy winter, as concerns about the economy appear to be starting to impact the tourism industry.
A lodging forecast prepared on behalf of the Park City Chamber/Bureau, dated Jan. 31, shows the 2023 projections consistently trailing the projections last year, as well as the actual 2022 numbers, through late March. The forecast is based on 22 properties representing a range of lodging options.
The stretch of the winter from the middle of February until the end of March is an important one for the ski industry, with the three-day Presidents Day weekend and the spring break weeks that follow normally being especially busy.
The forecast between this weekend and the end of March hits a high of 81% on Feb. 19, which falls during Presidents Day weekend, but there are a series of dates in the 50% range through March 31. The forecast on many dates involves a difference of more than 10 percentage points between the 2022 predictions and those of this year. The actual numbers last year tended to beat the forecasts.
The lodging industry is an important bellwether for the wider Park City-area economy since people staying in hotels and other sorts of accommodations tend to spend in other sectors like the ski, restaurant and transportation industries, as well as in the retail industry.
In a prepared response to a Park Record inquiry about the projections, Jennifer Wesselhoff, the president and CEO of the Chamber/Bureau, indicated other skiing destinations are also expected to experience a drop during the upcoming period. Wesselhoff pointed to economic factors in an explanation.
“Despite the epic snowfall, most ski towns across the west are experiencing a slower booking pace this year compared to last year which was a banner year and more of an anomaly than the norm. Snow quality and ease of access to ski resorts are important attributes when making decisions related to a ski vacation, but there are also many deterrents to travel right now such as fear of a looming recession, high interest rates, inflation, and the increased cost of gas and air travel,” she said.
Wesselhoff also explained plentiful snow like Park City is enjoying this winter does not necessarily result in large numbers of people staying in lodging properties.
“Generally speaking, Park City does not tend to attract a lot of overnight visitation based on snowfall; as we saw from last year. Our overnight visitors tend to select their dates and arrive regardless of snow levels. Day visitors (from Salt Lake) tend to be the ‘snow chasers,’” she said.
Wesselhoff noted Park City continues to draw lots of people from New York, Southern California, Texas and Florida, while “our international markets have yet to rebound to pre-Covid levels, particularly the lucrative Australian and European markets.”
Wesselhoff, meanwhile, said the Chamber/Bureau does not “anticipate trends changing dramatically over the next few months” and “overall, the industry is doing very well despite occupancy forecasts being slightly down.” She said economic numbers are trending up despite the lodging figures. That sort of scenario is desirable as the community attempts to reduce the impact of tourism, she said.
“While occupancy is an important indicator, tax collections and overall spending are the most important indicators of success. According to the December Summit County tax report, all of the tourism related spending categories are up. Local sales tax collections for 2022 are up almost 17%; restaurant taxes are up almost 30%; recreation, arts and parks tax collections are up almost 30%; and transient room taxes are up 44%. We are very happy with these results as quality over quantity is a priority. We’ve achieved greater tax collections and increased overall visitor spending with fewer visitors. This is an important strategy of the sustainable tourism plan as we work to balance a thriving economy and quality of life,” she said.